Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download the data. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. 2-point advantage in the national generic ballot, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. , also rated as an A+ pollster by FiveThirtyEight, had Democrats ahead by only 2 percentage points. Initial 2024 Ballot Donald Trump 40% Joe Biden 47% Undecided 12% Difference -7 n = 789 Trump Hurts Down-Ballot Republicans After presenting survey respondents with a Trump-Biden rematch, they were asked how they would vote for Congress. Louisiana Governor - Open Primary WAFB-TV/Mason-Dixon Landry 40, Wilson 24, Waguespack 9, Lundy 4, Schroeder 3, Hewitt 2, Nelson Landry +16 Louisiana Governor Runoff Election - Landry vs. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. His predecessor Donald Trump, a member. 7-point lead on Election Day, and they won the national House popular vote by 8. It really looks like anything short of winning both chambers = democracy will not survive 2024 . Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. YouGov. All 2020 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data. The first, from our colleagues at ABC News and The Washington Post, showed Republicans 1 point ahead on the generic ballot among registered voters but 2 points ahead among likely voters, making. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 5 percent to 42. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. A handful of recent polls asking likely voters in Virginia if they plan to vote for a Democrat or Republican in the upcoming General Assembly election (much like generic ballot surveys for U. Independent voters include respondents who. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. For example, if 44 percent of voters favored Democrats and 35 percent. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. AVG. To improve accuracy, the polling average gives more weight to polls: 1. Republicans took the lead in the generic congressional ballot on July 6, and by Labor Day weekend they had a clear 5-point lead. When Kansas voters earlier this month rejected a ballot initiative that would have made it easier for the state legislature to restrict or ban abortion, it was only the. Pappas UNH Pappas 50, Leavitt 49 Pappas +1 New Hampshire 2nd District - Burns vs. 21, 2023 leader Nov. 6 national generic ballot after accounting for uncontested seats, most of which were won by Republican candidates this year. Generic ballot. Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper)The Republican Party currently controls the U. 5 percent for Republicans. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Biden. 2-point advantage in the national generic ballot, according to the FiveThirtyEight average. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 49. All 2020 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. By Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Meredith Conroy. The model weights each poll by its sample size, how recently it was conducted and the historical accuracy and methodology of the polling firm. Undecided voters overwhelmingly believe the country is off on the wrong track: 83 percent of those undecided on the generic ballot say so. 4% Democrat 45. The current 2024 presidential election ratings from Louis Jacobson for U. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. The U. Therefore, we also make our data available for download so you can play with. 3 points as of today. The graph below shows how the FiveThirtyEight generic-ballot polling average 2 shifted in the last 90 days of the 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018 midterms. FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and methodology of each firm’s polls. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 7. And the generic ballot. 2014 Generic Congressional Vote. 45. 538 might feel like a left leaning organization but tbh in my opinion reality has a liberal bias. Biden. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 2018 Generic Congressional Vote. 13-17 found that 40 percent of likely 2024 voters would. Filter by poll type or state. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. Biden. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. In November 2023, we made. 0 points. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Today, 538 is also happy to release our live-updating average of polls of the national generic congressional ballot, which ask Americans which party they intend to support for Congress in 2024. 1d. Their surveys with Siena College during. Download. The generic ballot average has been relatively stable in 2020, but recent history suggests it could still move and make for a competitive battle for control of the House as well as the White House. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. , polls that ask people whether they intend to vote for a Democrat or for a Republican for Congress. Filter by poll type or state. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. President: general election, Virginia, 2024. 02. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Here in 2018. July 15, 2016 Sept. avg. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 27%. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. ”. 4. 42. 3. Incumbent President Joe Biden, a member of the Democratic Party, is running for re-election. For the 18 midterm elections that have taken place since 1946, I compared the final generic-ballot polling of the cycle by Gallup or the final polling average from RealClearPoliticsGallup surveys. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Even when Democrats were busy crafting and eventually introducing a fairly unpopular health care bill in the middle of 2009, they still held a 3 percentage point lead on the generic ballot for the. Download the data. Specifically, the generic-ballot polling average the previous September overestimates the president’s party’s vote margin by an average of 3. 508: LV: Nov. 95% OF POLLS PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE. 2. 9 . The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. 5 points. 2024 Elections Truth-o-Meter True Mostly True Half True. The data point for 2014 reflects this year’s generic congressional ballot, a poll-based projection of the national House vote. Biden EPIC-MRA. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Generic ballot, 2022. 804 A. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download. By Holly Fuong, Aaron Bycoffe, Humera Lodhi and Nathaniel Rakich. This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. e. Republicans (R) July October 2020 April July October 38 40 42. 538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major. This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. 8, 2022. +5. 1/20 - 1/21. Between the House (435 races), Senate (35) and gubernatorial races (36), we issued forecasts in a total of 506 elections. Download the data. Filed under 2020 Election. Six pollsters 1 have released generic ballot polls both before and after the Dobbs decision. Download. “Two weeks out from the midterms, evidence points to a re-emerging red wave that could sweep in GOP control of both chambers,” Axios (. Download. Women Won The Right To Vote 100 Years Ago. Download the data. The average methodology is summarized below the table. Download. B/C. By Ashley Wu and Molly Cook Escobar. 2 All six of those polling firms have shown a shift toward Democrats. Generic ballot polling average. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. John Anthony Castro, a longshot Republican 2024 presidential candidate, filed a complaint in a New Hampshire court arguing that Trump should be banned from the state's primary ballot while arguing. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. RCP Poll Average. Nov. ESTIMATE. More in 2024 Election. . In November 2023, we made. 0 percent to 42. The generic ballot in those combined districts, pitting an unnamed Democratic candidate against an unnamed Republican candidate, was tied at 39 percent among registered voters. 43. 8, 2022 leader Kelly Kelly +1. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. We include three types of polls: General Election, Primaries, and Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings for each candidate. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 8 percent). Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. But as of this week, after tying. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Republicans (R) +2. There’s been huge variation from survey to survey on the generic. Climate Power is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. While it’s definitely too early to hang your hat on any 2024 general-election polls, a Selzer & Co. Election 2024 Polls; Generic Congressional Ballot; Senate Polls; State of the Union Polls; RCP Election 2024. Download the data. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Nov. And as it happens there are basically 400 days to go until Election Day 2010, and here’s how the generic congressional ballot for 2009-2010 looks so far: If you visualize in your mind the gap. (Some of the “national vote” numbers in this table differ slightly from those in 538 ’s record, but the current numbers are all verified on Wikipedia’s website. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. The results indicate. Democrats (D) +6. Filed under 2020 Election. Download the data. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 8 Nov. Statistical model by G. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 2. Indicates a polling average for this poll type. Download. Democratic Gov. Download. Since May 2022, Republicans have lost a slight edge on the generic ballot. B. Sixty-two percent of generic-ballot undecideds disapprove. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download the data. A bleak Senate outlook for Democrats just got bleaker. 3 Trump +46. So I believe that yes the generic ballot could revert back, but on average, the movement is smaller, something close to R+1-R+2. The 2023 elections were a victory for liberal governance. Of those: The Lite forecast called the winner correctly in 482 of 506. 9 percentage points (48. 5 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of. 22 to Nov. In October 2014, the generic ballot stood here: Fox: D 45%, R 43% (D+2) CNN: D 49%, R 43% (D+6) (NPR’s last poll of registered voters. Download the data. Latest Forecast Weekly email Podcast YouTube. 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination. 7-10. Keep it simple, please — give me the best forecast you can based on what local and national polls say. 7. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Election 2024 Polls; Generic Congressional Ballot; Senate Polls; State of the Union Polls; RCP Election 2024. News. A Yahoo News-YouGov poll released Friday found 45. 1 Nov. 43. RCP Poll Average. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Trump. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 4 points. July 14-25. Download. Wilson. The prediction is that the Republicans will win 47% of the representatives in the Electoral College (253), and the Democrats. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Democrats +3. House, where 218 seats are needed for a majority (when there are no vacancies). Biden. The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. 6 percent). Final Lite version of FiveThirtyEight’s House, Senate and gubernatorial forecasts as of Nov. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. and the generic ballot test, in particular. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download the data. Republicans took the lead in the generic congressional ballot on July 6, and by Labor Day weekend they had a clear 5-point lead. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. S. 300 LV. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. On Wednesday morning, another generic ballot poll, from Selzer & Co. Poll type. Download the data. 8. With one week to go until election day, Split Ticket is excited to release its second to last House Temperature Check. ABC’s Jonathan Karl and 538 blogger Nate Silver -- noted that the recent polls about Obama’s approval rating and the generic ballot. According to the RealClearPolitics average, the shift began a month earlier. 3%. That’s an 18 percentage. Biden has 46 percent or 50 percent of the vote could be the difference between a decisive eight-point victory. 6 national generic ballot after accounting for uncontested seats, most of which were won by Republican candidates this year. Education Reform Now Advocacy is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 7-point lead on Election Day, and they won the national House popular vote by 8. Over that time, the generic-ballot polling average has missed the national House popular vote margin by an average of only 4. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Republican Rep. ' 2022 Congressional elections, generic ballot polling provides a look at the overall political environment. In October 2014, the generic ballot stood here: Fox: D 45%, R 43% (D+2) CNN: D 49%, R 43% (D+6) (NPR’s last poll of registered voters. And the generic ballot. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download the data. Download the data. 4 points. 2020. Democrats (D) April July October 2014 April July October 38. Democrats managed to remain ahead of Republicans until November, when the GOP took over the lead in 538’s average of generic congressional ballot polls. RealClearPolitics - President Biden Job Approval. Wisconsin +2 dem. That’s down from a high of 71-in-100, which persisted from Sept. I use the estimates from these models to make conditional forecasts of the results of the 2022 House and Senate elections. President: Republican primary, Iowa, 2024. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Republicans (R) July October 2020 April July October 38 40 42. Download the data. 45. S. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. As a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. 2-point edge on the generic ballot. Josh Christenson. On Wednesday morning, another generic. Elliott Morris. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 8, 2016 44. For example, here are the 2020 results. For the 18 midterm elections that have taken place since 1946, I compared the final generic-ballot polling of the cycle by Gallup or the final polling average from RealClearPoliticsGallup surveys. 5Download the data. Our average gave Democrats an 8. 7-10. 45. May 20, 2023 at 7:00 a. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination: Trafalgar Group (R) Trump 50, DeSantis 13, Haley 15, Ramaswamy 4, Christie 5, Scott 4, Burgum 3, Hutchinson 0: Trump +35: 2024 Republican Presidential. 6. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Biden Siena Biden 46, Trump 36 Biden +10 New York: Trump vs. 7 points behind Mr. 47%. 4 percent to 41. A Look At The Generic Ballot. Thanks for joining us!Download the data. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Download. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. But still, if we look at an average of generic ballot polls from 1996 to 2020 — covering seven presidential elections and six midterms — the polls were only off by 2. 1,500. Former President Donald J. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 41%. News 2024 Presidential Ratings. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Friday’s poll showed the generic Republican candidate is up seven points, with 48 percent of the likely U. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Today, 538 is also happy to release our live-updating average of polls of the national generic congressional ballot, which ask Americans which party they intend to. The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. The average showed generic Democrats with an average of 44. Democrats lead Republicans in the generic congressional ballot by 4 points with Election Day less than six weeks away, according to a new poll. 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100% Trump DeSantis Haley Ramaswamy Nov. SEIU is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. SIOUX CITY, Iowa -- The wife of a northwestern Iowa county supervisor was convicted Tuesday of a scheme to stuff the ballot box in her husband’s unsuccessful race for. Evergreen Principles (super PAC) Evergreen Principles (super PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. 1 Sept. 2024 Republican Debates. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Earliest day for independent candidates to circulate and file nominating petitions. Democrats lose generic ballot lead: Congressional Democrats have lost their advantage over congressional Republicans on the generic ballot, with likely voters now evenly split — 46% to 46% — on the question. 9. Club for Growth Action (super PAC) Club for Growth Action (super PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. degree. Today, 538 is also happy to release our live-updating average of polls of the national generic congressional ballot, which ask Americans which party they intend to support for Congress in 2024. And 2022, as a midterm year, has more in common with 2018 than 2020. Across the six. 2 All six of those polling firms have shown a shift toward Democrats. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. For more forecast content, listen to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast and subscribe to our YouTube channel!Shown below is 538 ’s own record ( 2/23/21) of its generic ballot results compared with the actual national vote. 3 percentage points (43. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents.